Our Science & Project

Our Project

a) To build ground stations. (We have full list of all sensors)

b) Selecting the major satellites and recording abnormalizes in the upper atmosphere. İncluding of course NASA ‘s Aqua and Terra satellites.

c) To place sensors in each ground station according to the area where the station is installed. Sending the data obtained from these sensors to the centre.

d) Sending data from satellites to the same centre.

e) At the centre, clearing the non-seismic data and sending the remaining data to the Storage room as well as directing it to the FORECAST room.

f) Show live earthquakes on a large monitor in the FORECAST room.

g) There are experts in the FORECAST room who will examine each parameter, received data from several stations.

h) And start to make an earthquake forecast one and half year after installing full ground stations.

SENSORS FOR GROUND STATİONS

Sensor and Equipment for each Ground Station

1 Seismic 1 Hz Three Component Sensor
2 MONOPOLAR ELECTRIC FIELD PROBE
3 Industry Computer
4 Professional Meteorological station
5 Ulf Receiver
6 3 Axis Fluxegate Magnetometer
7 ± Air Ion Counter + USB stick
8 Radon-Scout_Radon Monitor
9 Arduino Carbon Monoxide CO sensor
10 Arduino Carbon dioxide CO2 sensor
11 Nitrogen Oxide and Nitrous Oxide Sensor
12 Data Logger 16 Ch
13 8 Chanel Dvr
14 AHD Camera
15 24 Volt Solar Panel 2000 Watt
16 Solar Charge Control
17 Battery Monitoring System
18 12 V 105 Ah Gel Battery
19 FLIR Mid-IR Camera
20 Security System
21 Field Fluometers Model FL30
22 Waterproof datalogger
23 4 electrode conductometers with temp corr

SATELLITE DATA

1. Thermal Infrared (TIR) anomalies
The TERRA satellite was launched on December 18, 1999 and began collecting data on February 24, 2000. It operates in a polar sun-synchronous orbit at 705 km above the Earth's surface, crossing the equator on descending passes at 10:30 AM, when daily cloud cover is typically at a minimum over land. Terra has five instruments aboard (ASTER, CERES, MISR, MODIS, and MOPITT). http://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/
ASTER
• TIR channels (five channels between 8-12μm with resolution 90m)
• Cloud classification
• Brightness temperature
• Surface radiance
• Surface reflectance
• Surface emissivity
• Surface kinetic temperature
Through NASA Reverb: ASTER data archive. ALL products are available to all users at no cost: ASTER L1A, L1B, L1T; Higher Level Data Products (HLDPs) created from L1A; the ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM), and the North American ASTER Land Surface Emissivity Database (NAALSED). Registration is required for all users.

NASA Reverb

Search the entire ASTER data archive. The following products are available to all users at no cost: ASTER L1A, L1B and L1T data; Higher Level Data Products (HLDPs), the ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM); and the North American ASTER Land Surface Emissivity Database (NAALSED).

GloVis

Search the entire ASTER data archive, including TerraLook collections, using a browse-based map interface. Scene information is displayed along with the browse image. The following products are available to all users at no cost: ASTER L1A, L1B and L1T data; Higher Level Data Products (HLDPs)
Earth Explorer

Free ASTER data for all users: ASTER L1B and L1T data over the U.S. and territories, the ASTER GDEM, and NAALSED products. Select "NASA LPDAAC collections" under "Data Sets".
Japan AIST

Search the entire ASTER data archive. Pseudo natural color WMS/KML, and level 3 orthorectified bands 1-14 with DEM are available.
GDEx

Free ASTER GDEM data for all users.
Obtaining ASTER Data
ASTER is an on-demand instrument. This means that data is only acquired over a location if a request has been submitted to observe that area. Any data that ASTER has already acquired are available by searching and ordering those data from a number of NASA and USGS sites or from, we should be registered NASA Reverb Program to be able to use TIR data. We cannot procure TIR instruments and operate them for your project. And also we cannot process raw data by using ground station. We can download data from NASA Reverb.

2. Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies (Data)
The effects of earthquake on total electron content (TEC) data can be obtained from dual frequency GPS receiver system (1575.42 and 1227.6 MHz) The TEC data are received at 1 minute sampling rate. Sample drawing and equipment list are below.

Equipment List
1: NovAtel GSV 4004B GPS receiver
2: NovAtel dual frequency antenna
3: Antenna cable (30 meter maximum)
4: Serial cable
5: Power cable
6: Personal computer running Linux

3. Ionospheric tomography
Ionospheric tomography is a method of reconstructing an image of the ionosphere based on measured signals of integrated parameters in various directions. This is a very useful source of information for the development of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) such as GPS, GLONASS and Galileo, as these systems are affected by variations in ionospheric electron density, particularly those variations that do not follow a regular predictable pattern.(M. M. J. L. van de Kamp Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland).
We can make this study by using dual frequency GPS receiver system. Or we can employ a regional or global network of GPS reference receivers to model the ionosphere and then GPS users use the model to correct the ionospheric delay.

4. Ionospheric electric field turbulences
In the past radar was used to measure Ionospheric electric field turbulences. Since the measurement was done from one point studies have not been successful. Currently satellite data has been used. You should access to below satellite data;
• DEMETER Satellite
• CHAMP satellite
• (C/NOFS) satellite
• Swarm satellites

5. Atmospheric Gravity Waves (AGW)
Related to atmospheric gravity waves you can talk with NASA. Nasa can detect AGW from satellite pictures.
And also Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWP) contains an algorithms for AGW. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has well developed models. Turkey (General Directorate of Meteorology) is member of ECMWF.

6. CO release from the ground

7. Ozone formation at ground level
8. VLF detection of air ionization
9. Mesospheric lightning
This is still researching subjects. There are some studies related to mesospheric lightning. Most of modelling. There is a study;
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682614000777
And we can provide similar. MGM whether or not their lightning detection system can detect mesospheric lightning.

10. Multiple satellite image processing and interpretation techniques were done on false color composite (FCC) band combinations of LANDSAT 8 (OLI) for precise lineament extraction (both manual and automated) as well as spatial analysis. Softwares used include ERDAS, ArcGIS10.3, PCI Geomatica, and Rockwork.

Available Early Warning Systems
In the present of any Early Warning System, earthquakes have already occurred after the stress P waves have started. The destructive S waves are underway.
And after a maximum of 10-12 seconds they will destroy.
In fact, it would be wrong to say Early Warning to this system, NOT only the earthquake is already occurred, because the time is too short to take warnings and precautions, the system's security weaknesses are very high.

Our Early Warning System
Our Early Warning system is that after analyzing all the changes of all the variable parameters received from our Ground Stations and from different satellites to forecast the coming earthquake 1-5-7 days before they occur.

Why governments or other private companies or entities should buy our Early Warning System?

Our Real Early Warning system will forecast earthquakes days before they strike, typically 1-3 days before. This is vital information not only for the general public but also for government agencies, hospitals, airports, for any large operation with complex logistics, be is public or commercial, for sport event organizers, schools and universities, insurance and re-insurance companies, marine port authorities, and last but not least for the military. Later we will be able to manufacture our own sensors and build up our own ground stations, we are already having an idea.

GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST SYSTEM

Earthquake Forecasting Can Become Reality

There is one physical process that is capable of giving us useful information for an impending earthquake, this results from stress-activation of electronic charge carriers deep within the Earth’s crust. Though the build-up of pre-earthquake (pre-EQ) stresses occurs kilometers deep near the focal point of an oncoming earthquake, the consequences can be detected at the Earth’s surface in multiple ways, in the groundwater, at the ground surface and in the atmosphere above the affected area. These pre-EQ signals allow us to recognize an impending earthquake anywhere from days to weeks in advance.

Introduction to the nature of charge carriers and where these pre-EQ signals originate.

All rocks have properties operating at the atomic level. For example, all rocks in Earth’s crust contain what is referred to as peroxy defects. Peroxy defects are pairs of oxygen anions that have changed their valence from the usual 2– to the unusual 1–. Because peroxy defects are inconspicuous and difficult to detect, they have historically been overlooked by the scientific community. However, when rocks are subjected to increasing stress prior to an earthquake, these peroxy defects become activated and release electronic charge carriers known as positive holes.

Positive holes are electronic charge carriers similar to ‘defect electrons’ in transistors and everyday electronics, but in rocks they are associated with a single O– in a matrix of O2–. Once these positive holes are generated in the Earth’s crust due to pre-earthquake stress increase, they tend to rapidly migrate through the overlying rock. They migrate through the Earth’s crustal rock in a manner that resembles the flow of electrons through a semiconductor. They can move at speeds up to 200 meters per second and can travel long distances – tens to possibly hundreds of kilometers. Once the positive holes arrive at the Earth’s surface, they produce multiple physical responses that are detectable. These signals are indicators of the heightened risk for an earthquake. These signals are non-seismic, that is, they are not based on sound waves or motion due to the fracturing of rock but on the nature of the rock matrix experiencing increasing pressure. These signals may be fleeting and irregular, but there are many different kinds of signals. If we know where to look and how to recognize them, they can provide clear indicators of stresses building up deep within the Earth, days and even weeks before a major earthquake.

Without going into specific details of how different pre-EQ signals are generated, suffice to say, all these signals are linked to the upward migration of positive hole charge carriers from regions of high stress through the Earth’s crust to the surface. The signals they produce at the surface of the Earth and above, all the way to the ionosphere are useful pre-EQ signals. They are listed here from large scale to regional to local scale.

They are listed here from large scale to regional to local scale.

(1) Ionosphere anomalies are detectable typically 3-5 days before major earthquakes. The anomalies in the ionosphere consist of increases in the Total Electron Concentration (TEC) at the lower edge of the ionosphere, best measured at night when the effects of the solar radiation on the ionosphere are less. These anomalies are measurable by at least three techniques (i) using existing GPS technology to reconstruct tomographic images of the ionosphere over seismically active regions; (ii) using “over-the-horizon” FM radio wave transmission to detect changes in the morning or evening terminator times; and (iii) using long-distance AM radio waves reflected off the ionosphere over the seismically active region.

(2) Thermal Infrared (TIR) anomalies consist of increases to (i) the radiative temperature of the ground and (ii) the radiative temperature at the top of the clouds, also known as Long Wavelength Infrared anomalies. TIR anomalies mark the impending earthquake’s epicentral region and become detectable typically 3-5 days before major earthquakes. They can be detected by various satellite-borne infrared cameras or hyperspectral infrared imagers. Medium resolution detection is currently possible using MODIS data on the NASA satellites TERRA and AQUA. These can provide one data point during the day and one during the night per each 24-hour period. Detection is even possible using low resolution geostationary weather satellite data by determining the slope of night time cooling curves from IR images every 15 30 min.

(3) Anomalous CO release from the ground is currently retrievable from the MOPPIT sensor on board the NASA TERRA satellite providing daily global data.

(4) Increase in positive and negative air ion concentrations using networks of ground stations to measure air ionization, typically 100-200 km apart.

(5) Changes in the total magnetic field intensity, x, y, z-components to be measured by ground stations typically less than 100 km apart.

(6) Emission of ultralow frequency (ULF) electromagnetic (EM) waves from the ground. Both of these unipolar pulses typically last 100 msec to 1-2 sec. Continuous ULF wave trains last minutes to hours, and their x, y, z-components can be measured by ground stations preferentially about 50 km apart.

(7) Regional changes in radio frequency noise at different frequencies from very low to medium low (VLF-LF).

(8) Soil resistivity changes can be detected 1-2 m deep as measured by 4 point ground electrode systems, typically less than 100 km apart.

(9) Radon emanation from the ground by stations, typically less than 100 km apart.

(10) Changes in water chemistry at commercial natural spring water bottling companies or from ground water wells, typically less than 100 km apart.

(11) Noticeable changes to the circadian rhythm studies being carried out 24/7 at universities, hospitals and zoos, using well-kept laboratory animals.

(12) Hospital records with emphasis on increasing numbers of Emergency Room calls related to central nervous system disorders.

The GeoCosmo Earthquake Forecast System will monitor these precursory signals to develop combined probability maps of the likelihood of impending major earthquakes.

The following list describes the cascading effects (not necessarily complete) of how the positive holes generate observable signals:

1. All igneous and high-grade metamorphic rocks contain electrically inactive, dormant peroxy defects in the matrix of their constituent minerals.

2. When rocks are stressed, peroxy defects become activated, generating electrons and defect electrons, the latter known as positive holes.

Figure 1: Some of the recognized pre-earthquake indicators that will be used within the GeoCosmo Earthquake Forecast System to assess seismic risks.

3. Positive holes flow out of the stressed rock volume, spreading along stress gradients into and through the surrounding less stressed or unstressed rocks.

4. Positive holes propagate at initial speeds on the order of 100 m/s over distances of kilometres to tens of kilometres, probably even more.

5. As positive holes flow, they form an electric current generating a magnetic field.

6. If positive hole currents fluctuate, they generate electromagnetic (EM) waves, in particular in the ultralow frequency (ULF) range.

7. ULF waves may occur in the form of single bursts, so-called unipolar pulses, or of wave trains that can last a few minutes to hours, sometimes days or even weeks.

8. When positive holes arrive at the ground-water interface, they oxidize H2O to H2O2, affecting groundwater chemistry.

9. When positive holes travel through the soil on their way to the surface, they oxidize organic matter generating CO and aid in the release of radon.

10. The positive holes also affect the electric field distribution across the ground-air interface, which can be assessed by tree potentials and ground potential sensors.

11. When positive holes arrive at the Earth’s surface, they will seek out topographic highs and accumulate at the ground-air interface.

12. At the ground-air interface positive holes recombine to return to the peroxy state.

13. Because the recombination is exothermal, excess energy is radiated off as IR photons, a process causally linked to the Thermal Infrared (TIR) anomalies.

14. When more positive holes arrive at the ground-air interface, electric (E) fields at the surface begin to field-ionize air molecules, producing positive airborne ions.

15. Positive airborne ions have a pronounced physiological effect and are implicated in pre-earthquake changes in animal behavior.

16. The air bubble laden with positive airborne ions, rises to stratospheric heights.

17. The rise of positive air ions polarizes the ionospheric plasma, causing electrons to be pulled downward, causing Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies.

18. The positive air ions continue to rise through the mesosphere, organizing into columnar cells, which arrive at the ionosphere at vertical speeds of 20-30 m/s.

19. The cells of the rising ions causes a "bumpiness" of the E-field as recorded by satellites from above and by Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio scatter from below.

20. Meanwhile, at the ground-air interface, increasing number densities of positive holes arriving from below can cause corona discharges, leading to broad-band radio noise and the formation of ozone (measurable via current satellite data).

Figure 2: Depiction of the basic process, the build-‐up of tectonic stresses (thrust, strike-‐slip, normal), Which causes rock deformation and thereby activates electrons and positive holes. Flowing out of the stressed rock volume, the positive holes lead to a positive charge at the Earth’s surface, which in turn lead to follow-‐on reactions that have consequence throughout the atmospheric column up to the ionosphere.

Many of these pre-earthquake signals are subtle, fleeting, and often difficult to identify against the background of natural and man-made noise. The best way to overcome this difficulty is to collect many different pre-earthquake indicators and evaluate them together using advanced data analysis techniques pioneered by Dr. Freund and his colleagues on the GeoCosmo research team.

It is this unique approach of correlating and co-evaluating many pre-earthquake signals that sets the GeoCosmo Earthquake Forecast System apart from others efforts aimed at assessing earthquake risks.

1. GROUND WATER CHEMISTRY

It is possible, in principle, to monitor the hydrogen peroxide, H2O2, content in ground and well waters. However, H2O2 is unstable and easily decomposes into H2O plus ½ O2. By contrast the release of cations and anions entering the ground or well water are easily detected [Grant et al., 2011; Inan et al., 2012]. In fact, papers in the literature report on chemical changes of ground or well water, specifically increases in “mineral” content over the course of weeks prior to major earthquakes. These changes have been detected at distances up to 100 km and more from the epicenters of even moderate size earthquakes [Claesson et al., 2004; Pérez et al., 2008], underlining the observation that pre-earthquake stresses tend to be widely distributed and that groundwater systems respond to changing hydrodynamic conditions [Balderer, 1993].

2. AIR IONIZATION

Measurement of the increase in positive and negative air ion concentrations using networks of ground stations to measure ionization. Automatic monitoring can be done with a pair of sensors, one for + and one for – ions. The data will be affected by tidal forces and by passing thunderstorms, requiring multiple stations to eliminate environmental noise. The field-ionization of air molecules at the ground-to-air interface, driven by the accumulation of stress-activated positive hole charge carriers from below has been theoretically predicted [King and Freund, 1984], confirmed in the lab [Freund et al., 2009] and validated through field data from over 100 field stations [Bleier et al., 2009].

3. MAGNETIC FIELD

Changes in the total magnetic field intensity, x, y, z-components can be measured by ground stations. Cases have been reported where, prior to large earthquakes, the local or regional magnetic field increased or decreased relative to the field predicted by the higher orders of the reference magnetic field. These slow variations of the magnetic field measured at the Earth’s surface may be due to stress-activated electric currents deep below. In one case, the magnetic field over the northern part of Taiwan deviated over the course of 3 years from the field predicted by the Geomagnetic Reference Field http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/IAGA/vmod/igrf.html], followed by large magnetic field fluctuation lasting >50 days, which culminated in the Sep 21, 1999 magnitude 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake [Freund and Pilorz, 2012].

4. ULTRALOW FREQUENCY (ULF) ELECTROMAGNETIC WAVES

ULF unipolar pulses consist of single pulses that typically last 100-200 msec up to 10-20 sec (with post-pulse reverberations). Unipolar pulses seem to occur in seismically active regions at rates of a few per day, increasing in number as an earthquake approaches. These pulses can be triangulated [Bleier et al., 2009; Dunson and T. E. Bleier 2011].

5. VERY-‐LOW FREQUENCY RADIO WAVES

Measurement of the regional changes in radio frequency noise at different frequencies from very low to medium low (VLF-LF). Transmission perturbations obtained from crisscrossing ray paths between distant pairs of VLF transmitter and receiver stations provide triangulation of the location of a coming earthquake.

6. ELECTRICAL GROUND POTENTIALS

Positive hole charge carriers change the electrical conductivity of the soil – a fact used in China for decades to collect information about impending earthquake activity [Chu et al., 1996; Lu et al., 2004; Qian and BiRu Zhao, 2009]. However, because positive holes were unknown, the observed changes in soil conductivity were interpreted as due to the arrival of some poorly defined HRT (Harmonic Resonant Tidal) waves [AN Zhang-Hui et al., 2011]. The important point to note is that positive holes, as they arrive at the Earth’s surface, will not only change the conductivity of the soil but also set up voltages between the surface and subsurface, i.e. ground potentials.

These potentials can be detected using custom built sensors or using natural “antennae” that can provide information about the vertical electric potential profile. Tree potentials between metal contact in the tree crown and a steel electrode hammered into the ground within the reach of the roots have been used for some time to record dc potentials [Saito et al., 2005]. Mature trees act as robust and sensitive antennae, producing potential differences on the order of 100 mV between two vertical points on the tree trunk separated by about 1 m [Fraser-Smith, 1978]. These voltage signals can be accessed between two stainless steel nails that penetrate deep enough beneath the bark to be in electrical contact with the cambium, the layer of living tissue between the bark and the wood. The tree potentials carry not only information about the quasi-dc vertical E field, but also information about the E field component of ULF waves, which is complementary to the B field component.

7. THERMAL INFRARED (TIR) ANOMALIES

A TIR spectrometer mounted on 2D scanning table to record stress-stimulated IR emission spectra from nearby hillsides or mountain tops, co-located with geophone or seismometer will add to the data showing an electron flux from stressed rocks prior to an EQ. The situation is best illustrated by the well-studied TIR anomalies associated with the magnitude 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake, Italy, on 06 April 2009, due to normal faulting.

The epicenter was located in the valley, not far from L’Aquila as depicted in Figure 4a. Several known tectonic faults run along the valley, including the one activated during this event. Obviously the highest stress levels must have prevailed underneath the valley floor. However, as shown in Figure 4b, pre-earthquake TIR anomalies occurred along the mountain ridges alongside the L’Aquila valley. This is a clear indication that they involve positive hole charge carriers, which are predicted to flow to the topographic highs.

Figure 3: Refined model of the processes in the mesosphere and ionosphere over regions of massive air ionization at ground level.

Figure 4a: WorldWind image of the valley of L’Aquila with several faults, including the one that produced the magnitude 6.3 earthquake of 06 April 2009. Figure 4b: Red and yellow mark highest TIR intensities derived from Night-Time Thermal Gradient, which are not associated with the valley floor but with the surrounding mountains. The red dashed lines mark the crest of the mountains on both sides of the valley.

Anomalous thermal infrared (TIR) emissions have widely been detected by satellite sensors before the major earthquakes. A recent processing technique for geostationary thermal data, developed for the case of the 2009 April 6, magnitude 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake, makes it possible to identify areas of enhanced TIR emissions around the epicentral region at a mean distance of less than 50 km but inside a radius of about 100 km. The index, called Night Thermal Gradient (NTG), derived from 4-D time-series data (two spatial and two temporal coordinates), identifies TIR anomalies by following the temperature trend during night, when the surface of the Earth is expected to cool. Leading up to the L'Aquila earthquake, an anomalous warming trend was observed. In this study, the anomalous NTG pattern is compared to the expected normal trend, taking into account the seismogenic faults, the overall tectonic setting, lithological spatial features, the orography and world stress map near the epicentral region. Main results are that a certain lithological selectivity can be recognized and that the known main stress field and seismogenic faults seem to be less important than certain tectonic lineaments, which are classified as non-seismogenic. The strong correlation between the topography and the TIR anomalies is in agreement with proposed physical mechanism for the generation of TIR anomalies. This relation is, in turn, present mainly in correspondence to two tectonic lineaments which in particular are thrusts: therefore, strong compressive states seem to be a positive condition for the generation of TIR anomalies. The temporary modification of these stress fields have triggered the Paganica Fault to its normal rupture mechanism. It is important to note that the distances, over which the TIR anomalies occurred, are an order of magnitude larger than the estimated length of the main fault rupture. Pixel-by-pixel time-series comparisons between the maximum TIR anomaly area and the epicentre of the main shock show that the increase in radiative emission occurred in the areas of maximum TIR anomalies and did not start by spreading outward from the epicentral region.